Pig prices collapse below ¥5/jin; farmers losing about ¥300 per pig — why this cycle feels like cutting meat with a dull knife

Price shock and the immediate toll

China’s pig prices have plunged below ¥5 per jin (about ¥10/kg), with some regions trading as low as ¥3/jin, and it has been reported that backyard and integrated farmers face average losses of roughly ¥300 per head. The slump — part of a 49‑month pig cycle — has left the industry in deep red for more than six months. So is the bottom near? The answer is far from unanimous inside China’s agricultural and financial communities.

Supply dynamics: not as simple as fewer sows

On the supply side, it has been reported that the country’s breeding sow herd was about 39 million head at the end of February 2026, still above the government’s 36.5 million target. But headline sow numbers mask a productivity shift: PSY (piglets weaned per sow per year) has reportedly climbed from roughly 18 in 2018 to over 26 industry‑wide, with leaders near 29. That means similar sow counts yield far more market hogs. Add heavier-than-normal slaughter weights — average carcass weights reportedly reached ~128 kg in mid‑March — and the market has seen an effective, hidden supply boost even as inventories on paper appear to shrink.

Costs, consolidation and demand change

The squeeze is aggravated by rising feed costs. It has been reported that domestic corn and soybean‑meal prices climbed in early 2026, pushing the pig‑to‑corn ratio below 4:1 and escalating losses. Larger firms are better positioned: it has been reported that Muyuan Foods (牧原股份), Wens Foodstuff Group (温氏股份) and New Hope (新希望) have reported fully allocated costs near ¥12–12.4/kg, while many smallholders face costs of ¥13–16/kg — a gap that explains why around 20 million small producers have been forced out over recent years. Structural demand change is also at play: pork’s share of meat consumption fell from 62.1% in 2018 to 57.9% in 2025, so this downturn is not just about too many pigs, but a changing market.

Outlook: who’s right and what to watch

Analysts diverge on timing. It has been reported that some brokerage houses (CITIC, Huachuang, Guojin) expect possible stabilization or a turning point in late 2026 if breeding sows fall toward the 36.5 million target and producers accelerate culls; others warn of a prolonged “grind to the bottom” as scale, higher PSY and sticky feed prices blunt a quick rebound. What will decide the turn? Watch sow inventories, PSY trends and average slaughter weight — and global grain markets and trade policy, which can quickly feed through into domestic costs. When will the dull knife be sharpened? The industry is still waiting.