One day left before China cancels photovoltaic export tax rebate — leaders call price hikes as polysilicon tumbles. Why isn’t the market buying?

Market calm before the supposed storm

China’s decision to cancel the 9% export VAT rebate on photovoltaic products comes into force tomorrow, yet the frantic “export rush” the industry expected has not materialized. Normally firms would push shipments to beat a policy deadline — overtime in factories, full ports, frantic orders. It has been reported that some module makers even planned to work through the Lunar New Year. Instead, upstream polysilicon prices have fallen to around ¥40,000/ton and wafer and cell prices are easing, while component makers are publicly raising list prices. The disconnect is striking.

Who is shouting and who is actually paying?

Headlines have been loud. Trina Solar (天合光能), JinkoSolar (晶科能源) and LONGi (隆基) have issued price notices; Trina’s distributed-module guidance reportedly reached ¥0.93/W and Jinko claimed some high‑power product hikes of up to 50%. But real transactions tell a different story. TOPCon module deals in centralized projects are reportedly closing at about ¥0.68–0.70/W, and quotes above ¥0.88–0.90/W “basically have no real shipments.” The VAT cut raises module cost by roughly ¥0.06–0.07/W — painful for small and mid‑tier suppliers that run on 3–5% margins — but with upstream input prices falling and buyers reluctant to “buy at the top,” the market is simply not matching the rhetoric.

Policy, margins and the coming shake‑out

The export rebate has functioned like a hidden subsidy for years; overseas buyers effectively captured the benefit through lower “tax‑included” pricing. With the rebate gone, that cover is off. Integrated leaders with in‑house polysilicon, wafers, cells and modules can absorb or reallocate some cost pressure and use global channels to share the burden. Smaller players without brand, channel or technology advantages cannot. It has been reported that wafer factory utilization has slipped to 50–70% and some are planning further cuts. Policy and trade shifts — not least global scrutiny of supply chains and trade frictions — are pushing firms toward “localize production near markets” strategies, from Southeast Asia to the Middle East and the U.S., to mitigate tax and trade risks.

The short‑term verdict and what to watch

The real test will come in Q2 results. Capital markets have already reacted: solar stocks slid last week, with several names down mid‑single to high‑single percentages. Who can pass on costs, who can defend margins with technology (BC, HJT, TOPCon) and who is effectively “naked” without channels or differentiation will become apparent. For now the loud price calls are just that — loud calls. Will they turn into sustainable price levels when the rebate is officially gone? The market will answer soon.