2028 Restaurant Market Forecast: Cost‑Insensitive Takeout Wars to Continue for Three More Years, What Will Happen to China's Restaurant Industry?

It has been reported that a forecast from Hongcan Restaurant Research Institute (红餐智库), published by TMTPost, warns the subsidy‑driven takeout (外卖) wars in China could persist through 2026–2028 and inflict systemic damage on the restaurant sector. The headline finding is stark: reportedly about 13.18 million storefronts would exit over three years if current subsidy intensity holds, effectively shortening the average restaurant lifecycle to roughly one year. Who wins? Platforms that subsidize growth. Who pays the bill? Millions of small merchants, suppliers and ultimately consumers.

The report projects severe margin compression. It has been reported that industry net profit margins could fall below 3% by 2028, with many small stores earning just ¥0.33–0.56 per delivery order — effectively making “sell more, lose more” the new normal. Low‑price orders would dominate: some 60% of delivery transactions could be locked under ¥15, and nearly 60% of restaurants would switch to cheaper ingredients, raising the risk that food‑safety incidents move from isolated cases to structural problems across the supply chain.

Platform economics and broader risks are central to the forecast. It has been reported that cumulative platform “war losses” could reach about ¥550 billion by 2028 even if subsidy intensity declines 15% annually, a scale the report likens to capital outlays by global tech giants in other sectors. The pattern echoes past Chinese capital‑led price wars in photovoltaics and batteries that led to overcapacity and required policy intervention. Under current dynamics, platforms consolidate traffic and pricing power while downstream actors — individual owners, small suppliers and consumers — shoulder the costs.

What happens next depends on policy, capital and corporate strategy. Regulators, already attentive to platform monopolies and supply‑chain risks amid heightened geopolitical scrutiny, may face pressure to curb predatory subsidy tactics. For the sector, the report argues the only sustainable path is competition on efficiency and consumer experience rather than on cost‑insensitive subsidies. Otherwise the short‑term bargain of cheap meals risks long‑term erosion of choice, quality and the independent restaurants that have defined China’s dining landscape.