Domestic large-model vendors under the 'lobster' storm: Kimi's rocket ride and a feast for two Hong Kong–listed titans

MoonshotAI's meteoric rise

It has been reported that MoonshotAI (月之暗面) is pursuing an extension round of up to $1 billion that would lift its post-money valuation to $18 billion — a leap from $4.3 billion just months earlier. The jump is being driven by Kimi, MoonshotAI’s consumer-facing assistant: Stripe data cited by market sources show Kimi subscription payment orders surged dramatically in January and February, and insiders say Kimi’s revenue in a 20‑day window since late January already exceeded MoonshotAI’s 2025 full‑year intake. Rapid productization, low monthly subscription pricing and a sharp focus on high‑ARPU C‑users explain the rocket ride — but can that growth be sustained beyond a token‑driven spike?

OpenClaw frenzy lifts Hong Kong AI names

The same OpenClaw (aka "龙虾") open‑source Agent boom that is driving MoonshotAI’s momentum has also detonated valuations on Hong Kong’s secondary market. MiniMax (MiniMax, 00100.HK) and Zhipu AI (智谱, 02513.HK) saw parabolic moves in February–March: MiniMax briefly surged to a HK$382.6 billion market cap after successive product updates and MaxClaw’s viral uptake, while Zhipu’s AutoClaw (澳龙) — a local, one‑click version aimed at enterprise privacy needs and bundled with its Pony‑Alpha‑2 model — helped push its market value toward HK$289.3 billion. It has been reported that OpenClaw’s GitHub repository now has near‑record star counts and that Agent usage can burn tokens at multiples of conventional chat, creating a “token black hole” that translates quickly into cloud consumption and revenue for providers that host or enable those Agents.

Risks, differentiation and geopolitics

The three vendors are diverging fast: MoonshotAI bets on rapid C‑end monetization; MiniMax doubles down on multimodal creator tools; Zhipu leans into on‑premise B‑end deployments and model neutrality. Each path has trade‑offs. Secondary‑market exuberance already saw steep one‑day pullbacks and HK liquidity will determine whether MiniMax and Zhipu can convert sentiment into lasting earnings. For MoonshotAI, a blockbuster headline valuation places it among global AI unicorn leaders — but it must prove revenue sustainability or risk a sharp re‑rating. Against a backdrop of US export controls, supply‑chain scrutiny and heightened geopolitical attention to advanced AI, Chinese large‑model firms are racing to lock in users and revenue — but who can turn a token frenzy into durable profits? Only time — and real cash flow — will tell.