Observations on food & beverage retail for the 2026 Spring Festival

Overview: smaller decline, but not a rebound

Offline food & beverage retail dipped again over the 2026 Spring Festival, but the slide is moderating. It has been reported that Mashang Ying (马上赢) Brand CT found sample sales value down 4.79% year‑on‑year and sales volumes down 5.84% across the 29‑day festival window (2026.02.03–2026.03.03) versus the equivalent 2025 period. That marks an improvement from prior holiday comparisons — roughly −7% in 2025 v. 2024 and about −10% in 2024 v. 2023 — suggesting the descent is narrowing even as pressure remains.

Data scope and macro backdrop

It has been reported that the analysis used a continuous‑store model covering more than 38,000 stores that were open in both 2025 and 2026 festival windows, drawing full POS sales (excluding some non‑POS settlements). The sample spans county‑level and above across China and concentrates on traditional offline formats: hypermarkets, supermarkets, small grocers, convenience stores and food‑grocery shops. Officials have also signaled a shift in channels: it has been reported that the Ministry of Commerce noted offline retail growth during this Spring Festival outpaced online for the first time in years — a pattern that helps explain why declines are narrowing even as absolute demand remains soft.

Winners and losers within categories

Category performance diverged. Dairy was the standout: it was the only major category with positive unit growth, prompting questions about whether milk and related products have bottomed out. Beverages showed mixed strength — ready‑to‑drink tea and milk‑tea products delivered double‑digit sales gains (RD tea/milk‑tea growth >12%), while traditional dairy drinks and plant‑protein beverages fell by more than 8%. In snacks, maggot‑konjac‑based snacks (魔芋零食, konjac snacks) surged — with sales growth above 20% — while classic volume drivers like spicy strips (辣条) plunged more than 20%, and overall leisure snack share slipped versus 2025.

Market leaders and what to watch

Market share shifts favored established groups that adapted SKU, packaging and channel strategies: Three Squirrels (三只松鼠), Qiaqia (洽洽), Yanjin Puzhi (盐津铺子), Cuishengsheng (脆升升) and Wolong (沃隆) led snack share gains, while Nongfu Spring (农夫山泉), Dongpeng (东鹏), Coca‑Cola, Ziran Cui (自然萃) and Master Kong (康师傅) were the top movers in beverages. Product plays — for example Nongfu Spring’s 1.5L "Eastern Tree Leaf" family aimed at sharing/banquet occasions — and broader portfolio extensions by energy‑drink players helped those gains. So what next? The key questions are whether dairy can sustain recovery and whether offline formats can convert the recent stabilization into sustained growth amid ongoing channel fragmentation and macro headwinds.