China quietly profits from US AI boom despite Washington’s tech curbs, research says

US data-centre spending feeds Asian suppliers

China is reaping indirect gains from America’s AI spending spree even as Washington tightens technology ties, according to research by Oxford Economics. The consultancy estimates roughly US$2 trillion of data‑centre projects are planned or under way in the US, with as much as three‑quarters of the cost tied to equipment such as semiconductors and servers. The spending surge is translating into a sharp rise in US imports of electronic goods — much of it sourced from Asia and Mexico.

Asia’s supply chains do the heavy lifting

Who benefits most? Taiwan and South Korea are the most visible winners, exporting advanced chips — including memory — that are crucial for AI workloads. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) remains central to the market as the primary producer of the advanced chips used by US firms such as Nvidia. But Oxford Economics says China has also emerged as an unlikely beneficiary: while direct exports from China to the US have fallen amid tariff wars and tensions, China’s exports to other Asian economies have climbed, showing the country remains “enmeshed in Asian supply chains.”

Trade patterns and the limits of curbs

The report highlights concrete trade shifts: in 2025 the US imported more than six times the number of computers it produced and 2.6 times as many printed circuit board (PCB) assemblies, using Asia as a sourcing hub for assembly and component supply. Asian markets are capitalising on the boom by exporting computers and PCB assemblies that feed US data‑centre construction and AI deployment.

Geopolitics and the question of decoupling

Washington has imposed export controls and other tech curbs aimed at limiting China’s access to advanced semiconductors and related tech, but the research suggests those measures do not fully blunt spillovers from US capital expenditure. It has been reported that much of the AI investment’s hardware demand still flows through regional supply chains — raising a pointed question: can the US fully decouple its AI ecosystem from Asia without disrupting the very supply base that AI depends on?