AI fuels global trade growth as China-US flows shift, McKinsey finds

Overview

Artificial intelligence is now a major engine of global trade, McKinsey & Company and its McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) report finds. Global trade grew 6.5% last year — outpacing the world economy — and roughly one-third of that increase came from AI‑linked goods such as semiconductors, graphics cards, routers and servers. Since 2022, the report says industries tied to AI, cloud and chips have added about US$500 billion in revenues and roughly US$11 trillion in market capitalisation.

Geopolitical drivers

The boom is being shaped as much by politics as by innovation. McKinsey says the race to expand computing capacity is concentrated in the United States, which added about half of the world’s new data‑centre capacity in 2025. It has been reported that shifting trade flows between the US and China (中国) reflect a mix of commercial strategy and policy pressure — from export controls on advanced chips to broader supply‑chain diversification — all of which are reorienting where hardware is built and shipped.

Economic impact and outlook

The consultancy characterises current AI spending as long‑term infrastructure investment, not a short spike. “It’s on the longer side than the shorter … with multi‑year, long‑term investments,” said Kweilin Ellingrud, senior partner at McKinsey and director at MGI, likening the push to a new “space race” with higher economic returns. Who wins that race — incumbent cloud and chip hubs or countries racing to build domestic capacity — will shape trade patterns and technology competition for years to come.