Analyst: Apple reportedly sacrificing hardware profits to buy Mac market share; Mac base could double in a decade

Analyst claim and sourcing

It has been reported that analyst Horace Dediu believes Apple is deliberately sacrificing some hardware profit to expand its Mac installed base, aiming for a long-term payoff in services revenue. IT Home (IT之家) today cited 9To5Mac’s coverage of Dediu’s remarks, which lean on a parallel view from analyst Jay Goldberg: Apple is tolerating lower margins to capture share while relying on higher-margin subscriptions to recoup lost hardware income.

Why now — supply shocks and price choices

The move comes amid a global DRAM and NAND shortage that has pushed memory prices sharply higher. Most PC vendors have passed those costs to customers by raising prices. Apple, reportedly, has so far avoided broad Mac price increases and is said to be buying memory at premium prices to squeeze competitors who have less profit flexibility. It has been reported that Apple has nudged Mac gross margins down from comfortably above 30% to “just over 30%” as part of this calculus.

Strategy and upside

The logic is straightforward: Apple designs its own OS and services stack, so new Mac users are lucrative long-term customers for iCloud, AppleCare, and other subscriptions. Dediu estimates the current Mac user base at roughly 260 million (2.6 亿) and says a goal of doubling that number over the next decade is realistic if Apple sustains this approach. Reportedly hot-selling models like the newly launched MacBook Neo are already helping expand footprint.

Bigger picture: competition and geopolitics

This playbook exploits Apple’s vertical integration and deep services ecosystem. But it unfolds against a backdrop of strained semiconductor supply chains and broader geopolitical frictions that are reshaping how chips and components move globally. Can rivals respond without sacrificing margins of their own? And will regulators or trade policy shifts alter the economics? For now, Apple’s bet is clear: trade some immediate hardware profit for a larger, subscription-ready user base.