Morgan Stanley: China Could Supply About 90% of Global Humanoid Robots by 2025 — Is Humanoid Robotics the Next EV Boom?

China’s manufacturing lead and the numbers

It has been reported that Morgan Stanley’s recent research note projects a dramatic shift in the global humanoid-robot market: of roughly 13,000–16,000 humanoid robots expected to ship worldwide in 2025, about 90% will reportedly come from Chinese manufacturers. Why China? The bank argues that large-scale investment, deep supply-chain integration and an early-mover advantage are replaying the trajectory that powered China’s electric-vehicle (EV) rise a decade ago. Reportedly, Chinese tech parks, factories and universities are already piloting humanoid deployments in 24-hour warehousing, inspections and even fast-food service.

Export share, procurement and near-term growth

Morgan Stanley’s analysts say China’s broader export share could climb from about 15% today to roughly 16.5% by 2030, with EVs, batteries and robots contributing the bulk of incremental exports. It has been reported that state-linked procurement is already a material factor: early 2025 orders for Chinese humanoid robots to state-owned enterprises reportedly exceed RMB 2 billion, earmarked for power-plant and data-center maintenance, public-services and entertainment applications. The bank’s China industrial analyst Zhong Sheng (衷晟) projects Chinese humanoid robot sales could double year‑on‑year to roughly 28,000 units in 2026, and that by 2030 China’s operational robot fleet could scale massively — Morgan Stanley estimates annualized additions across robots could reach 21 million units, with humanoids growing from about 12,000 today to 260,000 annually.

Geopolitics, supply chains and the caveats

This expansion unfolds against an increasingly fraught geopoliticised technology landscape. It has been reported that US-led export controls on high-end chips and other strategic components already complicate cross‑border supply lines for robotics; will Western controls slow China, or accelerate domestic substitution and onshore production? Analysts warn that many current deployments still depend on simulated environments; real-world reliability, safety standards, and regulatory scrutiny will determine how fast pilots scale into ubiquitous automation. For Western readers unfamiliar with China’s tech ecosystem: the Morgan Stanley thesis is that manufacturing scale and integrated supply chains — not only inventiveness — will be decisive in turning humanoid robots from lab demos into a genuine industry.