China’s humanoid-robot market set to hit commercial inflection point in late 2026, report says

Duopoly emerging as Unitree (宇树) and Zhiyuan (智元) dominate shipments

TrendForce (集邦咨询) warns that the global humanoid-robot industry will enter a critical commercialization phase in the second half of 2026. It has been reported that the domestic market in China is already highly concentrated: Unitree (宇树) and Zhiyuan (智元) together are said to account for nearly 80% of domestic shipments, forming what the report describes as a de facto duopoly. Can smaller rivals catch up? The short answer: not easily.

Ramping from lab to factory — and profit

Companies are shifting from pure R&D to real sales and deployments. It has been reported that Unitree, long known for four‑legged robots, has pivoted to make humanoids its main business; in 2025 humanoid revenue reportedly exceeded Unitree’s quadruped revenue and accounted for more than 51% of sales, with an overall gross margin around 60%. Zhiyuan’s mass‑production pace looks even faster — the company reportedly scaled from 1,000 units in early 2025 to 5,000 later that year, and has claimed a March run‑rate above 10,000 units. Heavy acceleration. Heavy expectations.

Can the field broaden or will concentration persist?

Other players—Ubtech (优必选), Fourier Intelligence (傅里叶), Galaxy General (银河通用) and Magic Atom (魔法原子), among others—collectively hold roughly 20% of shipments, according to the same metric, and face an uphill battle to dislodge the two leaders. Investors and buyers now want real use cases and repeatable deployments, not just demo reels. Who will pay for humanoids at scale — factories, logistics hubs, eldercare? The market is only just beginning to answer that.

Geopolitics and supply chains will matter

Western policymakers’ tighter export controls on advanced semiconductors and sensors and broader trade frictions could complicate the ramp to scale. It has been reported that Chinese firms are accelerating domestic substitutions for critical components, but capability gaps remain. For Western readers unfamiliar with China’s tech landscape: this is not only a commercial story about robots, it is also a supply‑chain and industrial‑policy story — one that will shape where these machines are made, who buys them, and how quickly humanoid robotics becomes a routine part of industry and service sectors.