Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) stuns markets by guiding to “only” 20% growth after a blockbuster year

Market shock after a blockbuster year

Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) delivered a breathtaking set of results for 2025 — revenue of 371.2 billion yuan and net profit of 130.12 billion yuan, rises of 184.7% and nearly 3x respectively — yet the stock plunged after management guided 2026 revenue growth “not lower than 20%.” It has been reported that investors interpreted the move, from near-200% growth to a 20% floor, as a sudden loss of momentum. Short-term traders punished the stock even as overseas sales now account for more than 40% of the company’s top line, underscoring Pop Mart’s rapid globalisation amid a fraught trade and geopolitical backdrop.

Fundamentals: boom, quality signals, and IP diversification

The furious 2025 performance was driven in large part by LABUBU, which reportedly contributed 14.1 billion yuan and grew 366% year‑on‑year; but management points to a broader shift. Operational metrics are healthy: single-store sales have more than doubled, sales and admin expense ratios fell to 21.8% and 4.8% respectively, and the company says it is building a multi‑IP matrix — six IPs now exceed 2 billion yuan in revenue and 17 exceed 100 million yuan. It has been reported that Pop Mart repurchased roughly 5.92 million shares across March 26–27, a direct signal from CEO Wang Ning (王宁) that management views the selloff as a misreading of long‑term value.

Course correction, not collapse

Is this a collapse or a course correction? Analysts and investors are asking the same question. Critics point to the unpredictability of IP lifecycles and the high valuation already priced in by markets; defenders cite the “capability trap” described by Clayton Christensen and point to examples — Apple under Tim Cook, Starbucks under Schultz, Disney under Bob Iger — where deliberate slowdown and capability building preceded far larger, more durable franchises. For Western readers unfamiliar with China’s collectibles boom: Pop Mart’s choice to temper near‑term guidance is a strategic bid to convert a hit‑driven, high‑velocity model into a multi‑IP, global consumer brand — a long‑term bet that markets rewarded unevenly this week.