Memory Crunch Returns: Prices Spike Sharply and Shortage May Last Until 2027, Counterpoint Warns

Counterpoint Research says the global memory market is in the early stages of a prolonged squeeze. It has been reported that price rises during the recent Chinese New Year were dramatic: 64GB server DDR5 RDIMM jumped about 150% quarter-on-quarter, 12GB mobile LPDDR5X rose around 130%, and even legacy laptop 8GB DDR4 SO‑DIMMs surged roughly 180%. NAND flash increases were cited in the 130–150% range. These are not small ripples — they are market-shifting waves.

Key findings from the analyst webinar

Counterpoint projects DRAM output to grow roughly 26% this year and NAND around 24%, but the firm says those increases won't materially ease tightness until at least the second half of 2027. Even massive planned capital expenditures by the industry's largest players — led by Samsung and SK Hynix — totaling an estimated 80–90 trillion Korean won (roughly tens of billions of dollars) reportedly cannot plug the current demand hole. Vendors are said to be reallocating capacity away from dedicated HBM and AI‑chip production toward higher‑margin, general‑purpose memory to maximize near‑term profit.

Causes and outlook

Counterpoint analyst Min‑sung Hwang warned that hyperscale data center purchasing remains robust and that a meaningful price correction in the second half of 2024 is unlikely. Why? Cloud builders and AI customers are gobbling up memory to feed ever‑larger models and fleets of servers. It is a classic demand shock: capacity catch‑up takes years, not quarters.

Geopolitical context and what to watch

For Western readers: memory shortages ripple across smartphones, PCs and the server stacks running generative AI — a tightening that can slow product cycles and raise costs globally. Geopolitics also complicate the picture. US export controls and broader technology trade frictions have reshaped investment choices and supply chains, and it has been reported that Chinese and Taiwanese players such as ChangXin Memory Technologies (长鑫) and Nanya Technology (南亚) are part of a fragmented, geopolitically entangled ecosystem. Will hyperscalers keep paying premium prices while vendors retool capacity? For now, analysts say, the market shows no sign of letting up.