Memory price surge threatens smartphone costs — low-end models take the hardest hit

Key finding: DRAM +50%, NAND +90% — suppliers squeeze margins

It has been reported that Counterpoint Research’s memory price tracking shows a dramatic jump in component costs in Q1 2026, with DRAM prices rising more than 50% quarter‑on‑quarter and NAND Flash spiking by over 90%. The figures were published in Chinese tech outlets including IT Home (IT之家) and carried on Phoenix (凤凰网). The surge is already reshaping smartphone BOMs and will force manufacturers to make difficult trade‑offs between cost, margin and shipments.

Who suffers most — low end first, flagship also under pressure

Counterpoint’s components‑cost and teardown data, reportedly, show the pain is most acute for entry models. Typical low‑end phones (wholesale price < $200) using 6GB LPDDR4X + 128GB eMMC could see BOMs climb roughly 25% in Q1, with memory accounting for about 43% of the bill of materials. Midrange configurations (roughly $400–$600), for example 8GB LPDDR5X + 256GB UFS 4.0, see DRAM and NAND shares rising to ~14% and ~11% in Q1 and projected to reach ~20% and ~16% in Q2. Even flagships are not spared: a 16GB LPDDR5X + 512GB UFS 4.1 design could add $100–150 to BOMs by Q2, with DRAM and NAND composing about 23% and 18% respectively.

What manufacturers face and what consumers might pay

Bai Shenghao (白胜浩), a senior analyst cited in the reporting, warned that the memory spike is producing a structural change in smartphone costs and will force firms to juggle component expense, gross margins and volume targets. It has been reported that he expects conventional cost‑cutting to have limited effect and that retail price increases are “almost inevitable”: low‑end phones could rise roughly $30 (about RMB 207), while some high‑end models might pass on $150–200 (about RMB 1,038–1,384) to buyers.

Broader context: supply, demand and geopolitics

Why now? Reportedly, a tighter memory supply/demand balance — driven by data‑center and AI demand — is compounding normal seasonal effects. Geopolitical factors and export controls on advanced chips also add pressure when manufacturers pair large memories with 2nm‑class processors. The upshot: will consumers accept higher prices, or will vendors sacrifice features and volume to hold share? Either way, expect near‑term price inflation in smartphones and renewed pressure on makers that rely on low‑cost models to win market share.