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虎嗅 2026-04-06

Who is setting up Trump? The 'biggest winner' in the US‑Iran conflict has become clear

Moscow gains while Washington looks elsewhere

Chinese media outlet Huxiu has argued that Russia is emerging as the principal strategic beneficiary of the recent escalation between the United States and Iran. It has been reported that as Washington’s political and military attention pivots to the Middle East, Moscow gains breathing room on other fronts — notably Ukraine — while higher energy prices help shore up the Russian budget despite Western sanctions. Who ends up profiting when global focus fragments and supply lines wobble?

Winners and ripple effects

Beyond state actors, the dynamics also boost energy exporters and defence firms. Higher crude prices lift revenues for producers from Moscow to Riyadh. It has been reported that U.S. defence contractors stand to gain from renewed demand for weapons and intelligence services. At the same time, China (中国) — a major energy importer and trading partner of both Iran and Russia — watches carefully: Beijing can negotiate cheaper long‑term energy deals as sellers seek stable buyers amid geopolitical uncertainty.

What Western readers should know

This analysis is not a smoking‑gun allegation of a single actor “setting up” a U.S. president; rather, it is an interpretation of how complex incentives realign during crisis. Reportedly, the shift in priorities weakens unified Western pressure on Moscow and complicates transatlantic coordination on sanctions and trade policy. Readers should treat causation cautiously: many of the observations are strategic readings of who benefits from chaos, not proven conspiracies.

Policy
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