Large-model companies are reportedly heading to public markets as private funding wanes

Market move: IPOs on the horizon

It has been reported that leading foundation-model firms in both the United States and China are preparing to tap the secondary market around 2026. U.S. rival Anthropic has reportedly advanced to a G round with a market chatter valuation near $380 billion; China's Moon's Dark Side (月之暗面) is said to be valued at about $18 billion and is among the highest‑valued domestic model makers before any IPO. If these listings proceed, nearly all of the headline large‑model players in the two countries could be congregated on public markets by late 2026 — a striking shift from infancy funding rounds to full public scrutiny.

Why the sell‑side now?

The fundamental reason is simple: these models have become infrastructure, and infrastructure eats capital continuously. Training, inference and iterative R&D require persistent, large-scale investment while revenues from APIs, subscriptions and enterprise deals remain nascent and price‑sensitive. Private (primary) investors can take on time‑bound, high‑risk bets; but when the time boundary is unclear and funding needs stretch into tens of billions, that logic frays. Secondary markets offer a place to “sell the future” — at least temporarily — by converting long‑term, uncertain bets into public valuations. Early listed firms such as MiniMax and Zhipu AI (智谱AI) saw volatile but sometimes strong post‑IPO moves, while older listings like Mobvoi (出门问问) and SenseTime (商汤科技) endured lengthy valuation digestion, underlining the mixed outcomes.

Geopolitics and the public test

This migration to public markets comes against a backdrop of geopolitical friction: export controls on advanced chips, tightening scrutiny of cross‑border capital flows, and rising regulatory oversight for AI mean an IPO destination and investor base matter as much as the headline valuation. Public markets will force a different discipline — quarterly disclosure, profitability narratives and investor questioning of commercial traction. For companies such as Anthropic, Moon's Dark Side (月之暗面) and other contenders like Jieyue Xingchen (阶跃星辰), the exchange will not only provide capital but also offer the blunt instrument of market validation. Reportedly, that is precisely what these firms are now seeking — an arena where the promise of model‑scale AI can be priced, for better or worse.