The Collapse of the Gulf, Global Fragmentation: What Will the World Look Like After the US–Israel–Iran War?

A warning from Beijing’s commentators

Chinese outlet Huxiu (虎嗅) has published a stark assessment of how a wider war involving the United States, Israel and Iran could shatter the political and economic architecture of the Gulf and accelerate a fractured global order. The key angle: a regional conflagration would not be contained to battlefields and diplomacy. It would ripple through energy markets, supply chains and the institutions that have underpinned globalization for decades. It has been reported that such a shock could prompt states to seek security and trade relationships outside existing Western-led frameworks.

Energy, sanctions and the remaking of trade

Why does the Gulf matter to Western readers? Because Gulf oil and gas remain central to global energy supplies and to the economic cushions many states use to absorb shocks. A severe disruption—whether from direct attacks, chokepoint closures in the Strait of Hormuz, or broad secondary sanctions—would amplify price volatility and force importers and exporters to recalibrate trade policy. Reportedly, some countries would accelerate diversification of suppliers and payment systems, testing the resilience of the dollar-centred financial architecture. Sanctions, already a tool of statecraft, would be further weaponized, prompting legal and commercial workarounds that could entrench economic blocs.

Geopolitics: realignment or paralysis?

Huxiu’s analysis sketches two opposing dynamics: realignment and fragmentation. On one hand, China and Russia could deepen political and economic ties with Gulf actors and Iran to secure supplies and influence — moves that would prompt Western countermeasures. On the other hand, smaller states may hedge or fragment, leading to a patchwork of bilateral deals rather than multilateral rule-making. It has been reported that businesses and states will increasingly prefer regionalized supply chains and “friend-shoring” to politically aligned partners, raising costs and complexity for global commerce.

A less integrated world — what now?

The big question is not whether the international system will change, but how. Will global governance adapt to manage fragmentation, or will rival blocs ossify and raise the risk of chronic instability? Huxiu’s piece reads as a cautionary scenario: policymakers and corporate strategists must plan for multipolar disruption, brittle energy markets and legal environments shaped as much by sanctions and trade policy as by diplomacy. The next shock will tell us which way the balance tips.