Tmall (天猫) bets on “certainty”: 2026 KPIs to include confirmed revenue, costs and efficiency

Platform shifts from clicks to confirmed receipts

It has been reported by Huxiu, citing an interview with Jiemian News (界面新闻), that Tmall (天猫) will from 2026 fold confirmed revenue (确收), merchant costs and operational efficiency into core platform KPIs. The move formalises a long‑running shift from volume‑driven metrics — clicks, payments and traffic — toward metrics that track actual economic benefit for sellers: orders that are paid and kept. Why the change? Because brands no longer want noisy, short‑term growth; they want predictable, profitable customers.

A hard systems change, not a marketing line

Tmall president Jia Luo told Jiemian the change is technically and organisationally difficult: algorithm logic, ad allocation, campaign targets, industry scorecards and even staff incentives will need reworking so platform incentives “bite” with merchants’ interests. Confirmed receipts matter because high return rates turn apparent sales into sunk costs for brands. Optimising for确收 requires the platform to absorb some of the operating risk — from return management to matching higher‑quality consumers with higher‑quality goods — instead of merely brokering transactions.

AI, “扶优” and trying to extend the moat

This is an extension of Tmall’s “fuyou” (扶优) strategy to prioritise premium merchants and supply — but deeper. The platform plans heavier investment in AI and product understanding so “good goods find the right people,” Jia said. Algorithms will use longer‑horizon user behaviour and finer product tagging to increase match efficiency, raise ARPU and reduce wasted promotional spend. The aim: make merchant investments more measurable and lower their unit economics risk.

Competition, costs and wider context

The move comes as Chinese e‑commerce matures and competition shifts from growing new users to fighting over existing ones. Traffic acquisition costs are rising, and platforms must defend share without simply burning subsidies. It has been reported that Tmall may be the only major Chinese platform explicitly measuring确收 today — a potential differentiator if it can deliver. But can better metrics and risk‑sharing break Tmall’s growth ceiling in a zero‑sum market? For merchants and investors watching Alibaba (阿里), the answer will hinge on whether the platform can operationalise these promises at scale while navigating broader pressures on ad spend, consumer confidence and AI infrastructure.