Shen Yi: Preparing to deploy ground forces — Are U.S. and Israel's operations against Iran entering a second phase?

Second phase, or strategic pause?

Chinese analyst Shen Yi argues on Huxiu that the U.S. and Israel may be entering a new phase in their campaign against Iran — one that shifts from a hoped-for fast air campaign to a calibrated, limited use of ground forces. Shen frames recent public pressure — including a high‑profile ultimatum and a subsequent short delay in strikes — as part of a play to buy time, steady markets and prepare a ground option. It has been reported that Washington publicly postponed attacks on Iranian power plants for several days while officials sought to test whether talks could produce a de‑escalation.

Reported troop movements and the tactical logic

According to Shen’s account, it has been reported that U.S. planners are cobbling together an approximately 8,000‑strong core from Marine Expeditionary Units and airborne elements, supplemented by special operations forces already in the region. The reported plan is not a conventional large‑scale invasion but light, seaborne and amphibious forces operating under strong air and naval cover to seize choke‑points such as parts of the Strait of Hormuz or key oil infrastructure — Kharg Island is repeatedly mentioned — and to disrupt Iran’s enriched‑uranium stocks. Reportedly there is political pressure to achieve tangible results quickly, with an April timeframe thrown around in some briefings. Analysts remain skeptical that such a limited force can deliver the political outcome the U.S. and Israel reportedly seek.

Israel, false flags and the risk of escalation

Shen warns that Israel is unlikely to accept a U.S. withdrawal that leaves Iran’s capabilities largely intact. He points to reporting — including allegations tied to recent resignations and leaks — that suggest Israeli actors may have an interest in operations that force escalation or constrain U.S. disengagement, even by clandestine means. It has been reported that some in Israeli strategic circles have contemplated provocative measures; Shen also flags a low‑probability but alarming scenario in which tactical nuclear options are considered as a last resort. These are not certainties, but the possibility raises the stakes: if ground forces enter and the campaign stalls, the risk of broader regional shock — to energy markets, supply chains and global growth — rises sharply.

What Western readers should know

For Western audiences less familiar with the regional mechanics: Iran’s ability to threaten shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz gives Tehran a powerful economic lever, and historic U.S. sanctions and nuclear diplomacy failures constrain diplomatic options. Shen’s bottom line is cautious: the so‑called quick‑win “decapitation” strategy has failed, and what follows may be a slower, messier contest in which limited ground operations, political signalling and economic pressures mix. Reportedly, the coming days and weeks will be decisive — and not necessarily short.