Global assets “indiscriminately sold off,” Goldman Sachs (高盛) issues stern warning

Markets slammed as safe and risky assets fall together

Asian markets opened in a rout Monday as investors dumped everything from stocks to gold. South Korea’s KOSPI plunged 6.49% at the open; Japan’s Nikkei 225, Vietnam’s index, China’s A-shares and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and H‑shares all fell more than 3%. Precious metals — traditionally the ultimate haven — collapsed: domestic gold futures plunged about 8.6% to 940 yuan/gram, silver fell 11.7% to 15,411 yuan/kg, while platinum and palladium tumbled over 11–12%. At the same time U.S. 10‑year yields rose to 4.42% and the dollar index strengthened to 99.76, squeezing non‑dollar assets. The lone major mover higher was oil: China’s front‑month crude surged 7.5% to 834.6 yuan/barrel, while Brent and WTI rallied back above $110/bbl.

Geopolitics as the spark — but what’s the real risk?

It has been reported that U.S. officials have begun preliminary discussions about possible formats for talks with Iran, and that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff have been involved in related discussions, though reportedly no direct contact between the sides has taken place. It has been reported that a 48‑hour ultimatum from former President Trump demanding that Iran re‑open the Strait of Hormuz is in circulation, and it has been reported that Iranian measures and threats — including claims about an attack on a senior political figure — have intensified tensions. It has also been reported that U.S. strikes hit Iran’s Natanz facility, and that Iran responded with missile strikes that injured civilians in Israel. Reportedly, flows through the Strait, the global oil choke point, have collapsed from roughly 20 million barrels per day to some 0.6 million bpd — a claimed 97% drop that would be equivalent to roughly 17% of global supply.

Goldman’s blunt message: markets aren’t pricing growth risk

In its flagship macro note "Top of Mind," Goldman Sachs (高盛) warned that markets have largely treated the crisis as an inflation shock only — pricing higher prices but not a persistent hit to global growth. That, Goldman says, is a dangerous blind spot. Its estimates: a 10% rise in oil prices trims global GDP by roughly 0.1% and lifts headline inflation by about 0.2 percentage points; three weeks of Strait disruption would shave about 0.3% off world GDP, while a 60‑day disruption could cut global GDP by 0.9% and raise prices 1.7 points. With global financial conditions already having tightened about 51 basis points and major central banks signaling hawkish bias, Goldman argues the combination of sustained high oil and tighter policy could force a violent repricing — and turn today's indiscriminate sell‑off into a deeper growth shock. Who will be left to buy the dip if growth expectations change?