2026 Oscars: Colder Than "No Upsets"

A night of predictability — and a few quiet surprises

The 98th Academy Awards closed with the kind of calm some call boring and others call relief: major prizes landed where most expected. Paul Thomas Anderson (PTA) swept the big trophies — Best Picture and Best Director for One War Rewaged (一战再战) — and the ceremony produced almost no seismic upsets. It has been reported that local interest in the awards continues to wane in Greater China; one long-time broadcaster reportedly chose baseball over the telecast this year. Meanwhile U.S. TV ratings, after the pandemic lull, have shown a steady rebound, underscoring a split in global attention.

Films, factions and the politics of taste

Art and anger dominated the nominees: One War Rewaged, The Sinner (罪人) and The Supreme Marty (至尊马蒂) each channelled contemporary fragmentation and ideological fury. PTA’s film was praised for capturing a brittle present and for its ensemble chemistry — a key reason it also won the inaugural Best Casting prize for casting director Cassandra Kulukundis (卡珊德拉·库卢昆迪斯). The only modest upset came in cinematography, where The Sinner’s Othoum Doulard beat what many expected to be the runaway photography winner in PTA’s film. Documentary voters delivered a larger surprise: Unknown Man Resisting Putin defeated front‑runner Perfect Neighbor — a result that many viewers read through a geopolitical lens.

K‑pop, cross‑border streaming and changing rules

K‑POP: Demon‑Hunting Girl Group (K‑POP：猎魔女团) took Best Animated Feature and its theme song "Golden" won Best Original Song — a notable victory over a big domestic sequel. The film is a cross‑border production (Sony Pictures and Korean partners, later sold to Netflix for global release), and its win illustrates how streaming platforms and multinational deals are reshaping soft power and distribution. The Academy also eased international‑film submission rules to allow submissions tied to refugees or political asylum seekers, a change that reportedly helped Iranian directors whose films were entered by other countries. Is the Oscars’ rulebook bending to geopolitics? Apparently so.

Winners, losers and what it all signals

Warner emerged the biggest studio beneficiary regardless of which PTA film element you single out, while Paramount — which it has been reported recently wrested certain media rights from Netflix in a high‑profile deal — curiously left the ceremony without nominations. New categories (Best Casting debuted; Best Stunt Design is coming in 2027) and a mix of predictable triumphs with a few principled surprises made this ceremony less dramatic than some, but possibly more consequential. Stability or stagnation? The Oscars remain a mirror for global culture — even if fewer people are watching it in parts of Greater China.