International Crisis Group: Fighting between the US, Israel and Iran enters third week — how are countries responding?

Overview

The International Crisis Group warns the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has entered a dangerous third week and is already reshaping regional diplomacy, economies and domestic politics. States from Pakistan (巴基斯坦) to Azerbaijan (阿塞拜疆) are juggling security imperatives with energy and migrant concerns. Short-term shocks — higher oil and shipping costs, disrupted remittances, refugee flows — are certain. The bigger question is strategic: could a prolonged campaign trigger regime collapse in Tehran (伊朗) or widen fighting across borders?

Regional flashpoints

Pakistan faces a dual headache: a border with Iran that could expose it to refugee flows and a sharp rise in anti‑American sentiment among its Shia population, who number roughly one‑fifth of the country and have historical ties to Iran. Islamabad is reportedly trying to remain non‑aligned because it needs both Gulf energy and Saudi security backing even as it values ties with Washington. Afghanistan (阿富汗) and the Taliban have been unusually muted; that silence is explained in part by recent tensions with Pakistan, their own security needs, and the economic fact that much Afghan trade and humanitarian access depends on Iran’s Chabahar route. Azerbaijan, which has been cultivating close ties with Israel while sharing a long border and a large ethnic Azeri population with Iran, reiterated a 2005 non‑aggression pledge after Baku said drones from Iran struck near Nakhchivan — an incident it called a “terrorist attack.” It has been reported that civilians were injured in those strikes.

Great power calculations

Major powers are recalibrating too. China (中国) — heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil — is working quietly to secure supplies and diplomatic cover; it has been reported that substantial volumes of Iranian crude have continued to flow toward China and that Beijing sent a special envoy to Riyadh to shore up energy deals. Beijing is also said to want to avoid a direct clash with Washington ahead of planned high‑level talks. Russia (俄罗斯) has publicly condemned strikes on Iran and denied reports that it provided targeting support, but Moscow’s deepening security relationship with Tehran and its own interest in higher energy prices shape a cautious posture; it also hopes the crisis will complicate US support for Ukraine. India (印度) is in an awkward spot: strong economic and diaspora ties to the Gulf, growing defence ties with Israel, and an uncertain relationship with Washington mean New Delhi is treading carefully — even as it faces reputational costs after a deadly, reportedly US‑linked naval strike on an Iranian ship near Sri Lanka left New Delhi exposed as the host of the exercise in which the vessel had taken part.

A prolonged confrontation will test governments’ ability to balance domestic politics and external dependencies. For now, most states are trying to avoid direct escalation while hedging economically and diplomatically — but the margin for miscalculation is thin.