Song Luzheng: Europe not only does not support Trump, but even hopes he loses

Europe’s distancing from Washington

It has been reported that Song Luzheng (宋鲁郑), a researcher at Fudan University’s China Institute (复旦大学中国研究院研究员), told Observers (观察者网) that many European governments are not merely withholding support from President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran — they may secretly hope he loses politically. The comment came after US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets prompted several European states to condemn the attacks and refuse US use of their bases. Why the sharp turn away from a long-standing ally? Because Europe sees the risk as bigger than Iran: it fears an erratic Washington under Trump undermining the post‑war international order that protects European security and trade.

Four fault lines: Russia, energy, order, and migration

Song reportedly outlined four drivers of the split. First, Europe worries a US‑Iran confrontation distracts Western attention from Russia while boosting Moscow economically and politically; second, short‑term energy shocks hit Europe hard — natural gas and oil price jumps have already forced extra import bills, and that could loosen sanctions pressure on Russian oil and gas. Third, European capitals prize the international legal order; unilateral US action without UN or domestic mandate threatens that norm and sets precedents Europe fears (song argued this weakens the case against Russia’s own actions). Fourth, large Middle Eastern diaspora communities make European governments wary of further regional escalation that could spur refugee flows and domestic unrest. It has been reported that Song warned an Iranian military success might pressure Washington domestically and in mid‑term elections — an outcome some Europeans would welcome if it produces internal checks on Trump.

Division inside Europe and the limits of “strategic autonomy”

The episode also exposed sharp intra‑EU divisions. Spain — led by a leftist government with strong anti‑war instincts, painful Iraq‑war memories, and high domestic opposition to Trump — has been willing to refuse US requests outright. The UK, by contrast, faces deeper historical and security ties to Washington and has been less able to say no. Song reportedly cited these differences to illustrate a wider truth: Europe talks about “strategic autonomy,” but NATO dependence and divergent domestic politics make true autonomy elusive. Germany and France add further complexity — Berlin balances historical obligations toward Israel and deep US security reliance, while Paris juggles diplomatic outreach to Iran with demonstrable naval presence in the Mediterranean to signal relevance.

Can Europe realistically decouple its security from the United States? Song’s reading suggests the short answer is no — at least for now — and that the current crisis may accelerate a realignment where Russia and regional energy dynamics benefit while the transatlantic alliance faces a test of cohesion it may not pass without significant political change in Washington.