The real opportunity for young people has arrived, says economist Fu Peng — but turbulence comes first

Big thesis: AI will force a rebuild of production relations

It has been reported that economist Fu Peng (付鹏) told the 2026 Changbai Mountain Forum that the next big wave is not just more compute, but a destructive reworking of production relations driven by AI — and that it could begin fast. Reportedly, the shock to how industries organize and create value may start within 12–18 months and play out across the next five to ten years. Fu framed 2016–2026 as an “upper half” of a decade-long cycle now ending; what follows is a new era where production capacity (data centres, chips, servers) has been built, and the hard work of reorganizing businesses begins.

Investment and industrial implications

Fu argued that while the past years saw heavy capital spending on production power, the coming years will be about the mid-level — the “meso” — where old production relations break and new ones form. It has been reported that he pointed to moves in Samsung Electronics (三星电子), SK Hynix (海力士) and TSMC (台积电) as signs the upstream infrastructure cycle is maturing, freeing that infrastructure to reshape downstream industries. Expect volatile markets, he warned. Industries from auto to logistics and software will be forced to rethink business models; reportedly even programmers are worried about AI replacing coding tasks. Short pain, long-term structural winners — that is the claim.

Geopolitics, supply chains and systemic risk

Fu placed the technological shift inside a wider geopolitical reset. It has been reported that he sees changes to world order — from sanctions and export controls to shifts in raw‑material and manufacturing relationships — as part of the same transformation. Examples cited include Venezuela, Iran and Russia/Ukraine as markers of an “ending” of prior arrangements rather than a new stable beginning. For Western readers: US‑China tech rivalry, export controls on semiconductors and the decoupling of supply chains make this not just a business cycle but a policy‑shaped transition that raises both risk and opportunity.

So what should young people do?

The headline is blunt: this is an opportunity — but not for passive observers. Fu reportedly urged people to “embrace” AI — learn to apply it, not just watch it. If the biggest returns over the next 5–10 years accrue to new production relations, the practical move is to build skills at the intersection of domain expertise and AI application, and to be ready for rapid industry reconfiguration. Short term: brace for volatility. Medium term: ask what role you will play in remaking how things get done.