With the Middle East in Such Chaos, Can Chinese Companies Still Go?

Strait of Hormuz shock: supply chains on the ropes

The Strait of Hormuz has been shut down — reportedly the first complete closure in its history — after attacks on dozens of vessels, leaving thousands of ships stranded and global energy and commodity flows suddenly at risk. The waterway moves roughly 30% of the world’s oil (about 80% of that bound for Asia), nearly 20% of LNG volumes and large shares of metals, fertiliser and methanol trade; before the crisis, about 130 ships transited daily and some 11 million tonnes of cargo passed through each day. What happens when that valve is turned off? Short answer: dramatic delays, soaring freight rates, and immediate strategic headaches for companies that have treated the Gulf as a predictable trade hub.

Reroutes, high costs and broken alternatives

Companies explored obvious detours — Oman’s ports of Duqm and Salalah sit south of Hormuz and could have been used to bypass the choke point — but it has been reported that both facilities were targeted or constrained because of their role in supporting US military logistics, undermining that workaround. Overland trucking from Oman into the Gulf faces crippling customs, time and cost barriers; air freight and small‑parcel services are also hampered by restricted airspace and suspended flights. Shanghai’s SCFI index reflected the shock: China-to-Dubai container rates jumped about 72% in a week, and forwarders say total operational costs — insurance, war surcharges and emergency fees — are approaching double pre‑crisis levels.

Chinese firms feeling the squeeze — and adapting

Chinese logistics and consumer services are already adjusting. J&T Express (极兔) says last‑mile networks in parts of Saudi Arabia and Egypt remain operational while some UAE nodes are temporarily scaled back. Meituan (美团)’s local delivery arm Keeta has contingency plans but is restricting services in high‑risk zones. Sinotrans (中国外运股份有限公司) is coordinating alternative discharge plans as numerous Ro‑Ro and container vessels divert to Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, Djibouti or Karachi; it has been reported that port authorities are demanding rapid direct delivery and limiting transshipment to prevent congestion and security risks. The disruption also hits China’s auto exports: the China Passenger Car Association (乘联会) estimates about 1.39 million passenger cars were exported to the Middle East in 2025, with the UAE and Saudi Arabia together accounting for roughly 60% of that volume — volumes that rely on Jebel Ali as the region’s roll‑on/roll‑off hub.

A long lesson: diversify or be trapped

For many Chinese investors and exporters the crisis reiterates a familiar lesson: geographic concentration is a vulnerability. Dubai’s appeal as a low‑tax, neutral gateway — and a magnet for Chinese capital and family offices — remains strong, but the recent strikes, reported fires at a luxury hotel and an AWS data centre, and disruption to Jebel Ali expose how quickly a regional safe haven can be destabilised. Can firms continue to push into the Gulf? Yes, but with caveats: rebuild redundancy into routes, broaden regional footprints, and treat Dubai not as an only gateway but as one node in a distributed, geopolitically aware strategy.