U.S. Net Immigration Turns Negative for First Time Since the Great Depression

A historic reversal

The United States reportedly recorded negative net immigration in 2025, with the population projected to shrink by roughly 150,000 people—its first such decline since the 1930s, according to calculations attributed to the Brookings Institution. It has been reported that outflows could accelerate in 2026. The Trump administration has framed the trend as proof that tougher removals and tighter visa issuance are working. Yet a less-noted driver stands out: an unprecedented surge of U.S. citizens leaving, often with families in tow, for places they view as more affordable, safer, or more politically stable.

Americans vote with their feet

From Lisbon’s cobblestones to Dublin’s Docklands, U.S. expatriates are increasingly visible. Official data from Portugal reportedly show the number of U.S. residents has surged more than 500% since the pandemic, including a 36% jump in 2024 alone; Spain and the Netherlands have nearly doubled their American resident counts over the past decade, with the Czech Republic more than doubling. Last year, more Americans moved to Germany than Germans to the U.S., and Ireland is expected to welcome about 10,000 U.S. arrivals in 2025—double 2024. In a symbolic shift, the number of U.S. citizens living in Norway reportedly surpassed Norwegians living in America in 2024. Real-estate agents in Lisbon say Americans now dominate certain premium districts, with some neighborhoods’ prices doubling in five years; in select areas, Americans may account for a majority of foreign buyers, according to local market estimates.

Passports, renunciations, and policy signals

It has been reported that U.S. authorities face months-long backlogs in processing citizenship renunciations, with immigration firms citing a 48% jump in 2024 applications and further increases likely in 2025—motivations range from acquiring second passports to avoiding U.S. taxation on worldwide income. Applications by Americans for U.K. citizenship reached a record since 2004—about 6,600 in the year to March 2025—while U.S. citizens acquiring Irish passports reportedly hit 31,825 in 2024, with 2025 projected to reach 40,000. Despite a 12% dollar slide against the euro last year, U.S. inflows into major eurozone countries continued to accelerate. What does that say about push and pull factors?

Beyond a post-pandemic blip

Surveys suggest the shift is structural. Gallup polling shows the share of Americans who say they want to leave the U.S. rising from one in ten in 2008 to one in five last year; among women aged 15–44, 40% reportedly wish to move permanently abroad—higher than the 37% recorded for sub-Saharan Africa in 2023. The talent pipeline is moving, too: The Times Higher Education reports that U.S. academics seeking overseas roles rose by more than a fifth, much of it toward Europe, as the EU earmarked €500 million to attract top scientists. Meanwhile, UCAS data reportedly show international students heading to the U.S. fell 17% last autumn, even as the number of Americans earning European degrees has doubled since 2011, including a 14% jump in the U.K. last year. Cost of living, healthcare, safety, and political volatility are frequently cited by U.S. expatriates. The result? A narrative once grounded in American exceptionalism is confronting a new reality of American emigration.