Former US State Department Advisor Vali Nasr: Trump May Have Misjudged Iran

Key takeaways from the Foreign Policy interview

Vali Nasr, a noted Middle East scholar and former senior adviser at the US State Department, warned in an interview with Foreign Policy that President Trump may have misjudged Iran’s resilience and the trajectory of the current conflict. Nasr told interviewer Ravi Agrawal that Iran’s Islamic Republic is deliberately multi‑layered and decentralized; even with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, a “deep state” of senior clerics, Revolutionary Guards commanders and senior officials can collectively manage war and succession. Who really holds power in Tehran? According to Nasr, it is not a single person but an institutional network designed for survival.

Why mass uprising is unlikely — and what Tehran’s strategy looks like

Nasr argued that while public anger exists, there is no organized political movement inside Iran capable of channeling protests into regime‑toppling unrest, and domestic security forces remain well positioned in key cities. He described Iran’s approach as one of “strategic endurance”: low‑intensity warfare, proxy attacks and calibrated strikes on Gulf infrastructure aimed at exhausting US and Israeli resolve and raising the economic cost of conflict. By putting pressure on energy routes and global markets, Tehran seeks leverage; closing or threatening LNG and shipping chokepoints could ripple into Europe’s energy supplies.

Political and geopolitical implications

Nasr said US policy has oscillated — from targeting Iran’s nuclear capabilities to apparent ambitions for regime change — and that this incoherence risks strategic miscalculation. He suggested that Trump may have anticipated a quick, decisive outcome but has instead been drawn into a more protracted and costly confrontation. Israel’s more explicit desire to weaken Iran’s regional capabilities adds another dimension: Tel Aviv reportedly favors a longer campaign to degrade Tehran’s missile and proxy networks, which could prolong the fighting.

Broader context

The interview underscores how sanctions, decades of economic pressure and regional rivalries shape both Tehran’s options and Western calculations. Nasr warned that a drawn‑out conflict would raise energy prices, increase risks to US personnel and assets in the region, and could force Washington to pay a higher political and economic price for any negotiated pause. His verdict: Trump may have underestimated Iran’s cohesion and patience — and the strategic costs of trying to short‑circuit them.