Fewer students: Could China cancel the high school and college entrance exams?

A commentary on Huxiu (虎嗅) has reignited a sensitive question in China’s education debate: with shrinking student cohorts, should the country scrap its high school and college entrance exams? The piece probes whether fewer candidates make the exam regime—zhongkao (中考) for high school placement and gaokao (高考) for university admissions—obsolete. The core tension is clear: even as births fall, the best seats remain scarce. Does a smaller pool change the rules of merit, or merely the odds?

What’s at stake

For Western readers, the gaokao is China’s once-a-year, high-stakes national university entrance test—an enduring pillar of social mobility and bureaucratic order. The zhongkao sorts students into academic high schools versus vocational tracks, shaping life trajectories even earlier. Despite a demographic downturn marked by record-low births in recent years, gaokao registrations have remained above 12 million annually, buoyed by repeat takers and broad university participation. Meanwhile, high-quality slots at elite high schools and top-tier universities remain tightly rationed, with provincial quotas and urban–rural disparities amplifying competition.

Reform, not repeal

Cancel the exams outright? Unlikely. Officials often describe the gaokao as a “lifeline of fairness,” a standardized filter seen as more equitable than recommendation-driven systems that could reward wealth or guanxi (connections). China’s education quality is highly uneven across regions; as long as top schools and flagship universities are scarce, standardized exams remain the blunt instrument that allocates opportunity. It has been reported that some localities, facing enrollment shortfalls, have adjusted zhongkao cutoffs or merged schools, but such moves amount to calibration—not abolition.

The shifting frontier

The more probable path is incremental reform. Beijing has been pushing diversified admissions pilots, strengthening basic disciplines, and expanding vocational education, while its 2021 “double reduction” policy curbed after-school tutoring to dial down runaway competition. Demographics may accelerate these trends: universities could broaden holistic review, high schools may recalibrate streaming, and smaller cities might step up recruitment. Yet the geopolitical backdrop—China’s race to cultivate STEM talent amid US–China tech rivalry and export controls—tilts the system toward continuity. The exams will likely evolve. Disappear? Not anytime soon, reportedly.