Dialogue with DBS Hong Kong's Ji Mo: From Quantitative Change to Qualitative Change in the Chinese Economy

Overview

It has been reported that Ji Mo (纪沫), chief China/Hong Kong economist at DBS Hong Kong (星展香港), argues China is shifting from a long period of quantitative accumulation into a qualitative break driven by a tech-led "new economy." Facing a global economic reset and the opening year of China's 15th Five‑Year Plan, Ji says the most painful phase of adjustment — especially in real estate — is behind us. Why hasn’t the deep property correction produced a hard landing? Because new‑economy growth has cushioned and re‑wired the macro picture.

Dual economies and geopolitical context

Ji contrasts China’s two‑speed economy — an old economy anchored in property and construction versus a rising technology‑intensive new economy — with the U.S. experience, where the split is largely along income lines. She has reportedly pointed to Beijing’s rapid gains in "critical technologies" as a core reason for renewed resilience: by one count China now leads in 66 of about 74 such technologies versus eight for the U.S., a gap that helps explain Washington’s increasingly restrictive tech policies and export controls. Those restrictions, in turn, reflect concern about China’s full‑chain manufacturing strength and its ability to translate research into domestic production at scale.

Three dividends fueling the shift

Ji distils China’s qualitative leap into three long‑term, concentrated dividends: energy, talent and manufacturing. Stable and expanding energy production and storage underwrite large‑scale high‑tech deployment. Decades of education reform and workforce development — tracing back to the restoration of the gaokao in 1977–78 — have produced the engineers and scientists now driving frontier projects. And China’s manufacturing base, she says, still accounts for over 30% of global output, providing an unparalleled advantage in turning technology into products. Can other economies replicate all three simultaneously? Not easily.

Outlook and policy stance

Looking ahead, Ji reportedly expects the worst of the property adjustment to end around mid‑2027 and sees upside to the commonly quoted 4.5% growth forecast for 2026. She counsels against large‑scale "blanket" stimulus that would ratchet up leverage; instead, she anticipates more targeted fiscal and monetary coordination, plus major projects to catalyze the new economy’s wider diffusion. The view was shared in an interview with Huxiu’s Viewpoint series and frames China’s near‑term risk profile as one of managed structural transition rather than cyclical collapse.