Gold, Crypto and AI Branded 2026’s “Hardest Bubbles” in Influential Chinese Essay

A reframing of “bubbles,” with Chinese industrial policy in the background

An essay circulating on Huxiu (虎嗅) from Fudan University’s School of Management argues that 2026 will be defined by three “hardest bubbles”: gold, digital currencies and artificial intelligence. The piece contends that bubbles, far from being purely pejorative, often accelerate resource allocation and technological revolutions. Its thesis dovetails with Beijing’s push for “new quality productive forces” (新质生产力)—a policy frame guiding the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026–2030) toward AI, advanced manufacturing, and energy technologies.

Geopolitics, gold and the dollar question

The author attributes recent surges and sharp pullbacks in gold and silver to consolidation rather than a burst, citing three drivers: geopolitics, prospective monetary easing, and long-cycle doubts about the U.S. dollar system. It has been reported that tensions in parts of South America, a U.S.-Europe spat over Greenland, and a more overt “law of the jungle” mood at Davos have fueled safe-haven trades; these claims remain unverified and reflect the essay’s analysis. The piece also links near-term gold moves to expectations around U.S. policy under reportedly incoming Federal Reserve leadership—naming Kevin Warsh—though this has not been officially confirmed. Its bottom line: multiple timelines (from near-term policy to decade-long reserve-currency questions) are being priced at once.

AI as the “least bad” bubble—and China’s atom-moving ambition

Calling AI potentially the largest bubble of our lifetimes, the essay argues that “good” tech bubbles catalyze breakthroughs, especially when capital flows into compute, sensors, power, storage and robotics—the stack needed to “move atoms,” not just “electrons.” In practice, that means industrial transformation: autonomous systems that screw bolts, not just chatbots that draft text. This logic aligns with China’s current market reality: platforms such as Baidu (百度), Alibaba (阿里巴巴) and Tencent (腾讯) are pouring funds into large models while domestic champions scale EVs, batteries, and factory automation—areas less directly hit by U.S. chip export controls but still shaped by widening tech sanctions and supply-chain de-risking.

Digital money races, a barbell bet—and a strategic question

On currencies, the essay frames a global contest between U.S.-linked stablecoins, other crypto assets, and China’s digital renminbi (数字人民币), with renminbi internationalization at an inflection. It argues—contentiously—that China “won” the trade war by establishing credible denial capabilities and expects the U.S. to shift focus to the Western Hemisphere; such geopolitical claims should be treated as commentary, not fact. Investment-wise, the author proposes a “barbell strategy”: gold on one side, frontier tech on the other, with non-ferrous metals, energy and electronic components in the middle. Whether Western powers are retreating—or merely regrouping—remains the open question. For now, China’s thesis is clear: in a sanctions-heavy world of contested minerals, supply chains and money systems, the durable alpha sits where policy, power and production converge.